EASTERN PROMISE(S)

I've had a few days to think since publishing my last posting and have reached a few conclusions with regards to the blatant kidnapping of British servicemen by Iran.

• Knowingly crossing an international boundary without permission with an armed force constitutes an act of war and that is exactly what the Iranian Revolutionary Guard have done.
• If British forces crossed into Iranian territory one has to assume that the airspace over Iranian water was also violated by the Lynx helicopter from HMS Cornwall (F99). If that is the case why was it not shot down by the Iranian gunboats that were supposedly protecting their own territory.
• The dhow that was involved in the incident has to have been a "plant" by the Iranians. It was moored close enough to the border in shallow water where HMS Cornwall couldn't get to it and the Iranian gunboats could. It was made suspicious enough for the commanding officer of HMS Cornwall to instigate a search of the vessel and as soon as the servicemen boarded the dhow the Iranians made their play. The whole thing was a setup from the very beginning.
• The Government of this country needs to make it very clear to Iran that they have committed an Act of War and that we are prepared to treat it as such.
• We are operating in the Persian Gulf as part of a United Nations Force. The UN needs to get behind this country and make it clear that the repatriation of British personnel will be done with force if necessary.
• It is already quite clear that Iranian Shia's are stirring up the insurgency in Iraq, and as soon as the UN forces are withdrawn from Iraq I fully expect to see the Revolutionary Guard cross the border from Iran. These two countries already have a history of conflict and it isn't over yet.
• History has shown over the years that promises made by countries like Iran are not worth the air that it takes to float them, and anybody who takes them at anything more than a few spoken words is bordering on stupid.

Just to finish up I sincerely hope that Mr Blair is not considering handing over the administration of this country to a new Prime Minister while this matter is unresolved. I notice in today's news that Gordon Brown is poncing around in Afghanistan introducing himself to people in anticipation of his expected takeover of the Premiership. His timing is particularly bad and this trip should have been cancelled until after the leadership election has taken place. Blair hasn't resigned yet and any move to do so under the current circumstances is going to be seen in the Middle East as a weakness to be used and played with to the full. In spite of his numerous failings Blair has a proven track record as a Leader and is capable of standing his ground when it is required of him, whereas Brown only has a record for juggling numbers and conning the tax paying public into thinking he's just done them a favour.